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It feels a wee while since Kade Matson‘s nasty looking upside-down-over-the-falls on a Backdoor nug.
For all the drama that’s ensued since Pipe’s curtain raiser, most of it has been scoreline related, rather than oceanic violence. Not that scoring squabbles aren’t enthralling to a point, but there is a tendency for it all to wilt and wither under the scrutiny of relentless replay autopsy, for us to disappear up our own bungholes quibbling over the minutiae. Especially the split screen of the two rides simultaneously, where one surfer is backhand, one forehand, doing turns at different times. I’m not sure exactly how I’m supposed to feel but mostly, it’s empty. Like someone who can’t cry after a loved one dies.
But never mind all that, Chopes is here to save us from ourselves. Tour fans are now on the brink of contending with the purest and best surf dilemmas of all: Will they or won’t they make the drop? Followed by: Will they make it out the baz?
Beautiful, deadly, confronting, the place of broken skulls is not for the faint hearted. Nor brainless mad dogs either, though. One thing top visiting pros tend to mention about elite locals’ approach, is their finesse in and around the heaviest impact zone in the universe.
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Moved up the batting order for the Olympics, The Shiseido Tahiti Pro brings coveted waves of consequence to a reduced post-cut field, which can theoretically run events in three days. It also presents a chance to right the scales of justice for the oppressed right foot forward minority. You can check your regularfoot privilege at the Carrefour in Papeete (perhaps whilst picking up a matchbox of mouldy bush weed): only 4 times in 23 men’s CT events and 3/10 women’s has the Teahupoo final not featured at least one righteous, emancipated goofyfoot.
The premise for Teahupo’o is relatively straightforward, on paper. Take off late, ideally straight into the tube, pump into the west bowl, stand tall through it, emerge after the spit. Then hard to port, kick out right under a channel boat gunwale, with the flotilla in full chorus of joyous approval.
Simple, right?
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The Forey
The CT event originally ran in May, before moving to August in 2010. May tends to be less likely to encounter Maramu winds — nuisance south winds that blow cross shore at Teahupoo. The word was that Billabong moved it to August to get it early in their financial year, and it just sorta stayed. Since the move, the August window has generally been pretty decent overall. But traditionally, May is considered the more favourable season — before seasons became a once trusted institution that can no longer be relied upon to do the right thing.
As opposed to other venues where premium conditions require two things — a solid distant swell and clean coastal conditions, often determined by systems independent of each other — at Teahupo’o, broadly speaking, big clean swells tend to be accompanied by favourable winds by default.
The forecast currently shows smaller swell for the early/mid part of the forecast in the 4-5ft range with E winds, until Wed 29-31st, when things liven up considerably in the 6-10ft range — high chance we’ll finish the event in waves of truth, to quote a Tahiti 2x winner.
The opening day of the window Wed 22nd looks like SE swell, not what you want for Chopes, so very likely a no go. Then the direction improves by veering to SW for the remainder. Sat 25th currently shows 4ft at 16s with manageable ESE trades, so could be when things kick off. Alain Riou, who grew up at Vairao and won the trials here in 2003, reckons, “Anything above 210 deg is OK, 230 is a really good direction but pretty rare.” From the forecast, the bulk of the swells through the window are around 210.
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Where Were We?
Key themes from the CT season so far include Griffin Colapinto in the Yellow Jersey, ultra consistent with a win, 2nd, and 5th. Robbo’s form has been more polarised — wins at Sunset and Margs, 17ths at Pipe and Bells. John John’s made two finals (Pipe, Margs) without getting the win. Ethan Ewing is yet to tear an event a new sheriff’s badge but is threatening — like a stalker that has been just texts and emails, whom you sense might appear, face pressed against the window at 3am, any day now. With over half the season done, the continued meager form of male surfing’s dominant Brazilian force sees their top ranked surfer Italo in 16th, Medina 19th, Yago 22nd, with the same number of Brazilian surfers (3) on tour, as Californians inside the Top 10 (4 if you count Kanoa).
Women’s rankings continue to read as you might expect after one event, not five — with no world champs inside the top 5. Two wins for Simmers (Pipe, Bells) sets the pace, ahead of Defay and Molly Picklum, whose blistering Hawaiian campaign (two finals with a Sunset win) has hit the skids since. Defending world champ Caroline Marks is yet to crack a final. Part of the reason for the rankings’ relatively unfamiliar look has been the absence of Carissa and Steph, the former of whom returns to the Shiseido Pro as a wildcard to prepare for the Olympics.
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John John Florence
Weird to think that John has never won this event, though less so when you consider this will be only his third showing since making the final in 2016. Without a CT win since bagging Pipe in 2020, John scored his highest wave (9.57) and heat total (17.64) here last year, finishing 5th.
For the Tour’s newest father, trophy lifts at the Shiseido Pro, Cloudy, the Olympics, and the WSL Finals would be OK ways to stave off dad bod.
Jack Robinson
It’s all well and good being the Vortex Shaman, but this is a numbers, not a name game. To which end, Robbo’s stats are rude: With 7 CT wins in 38 events, only Shaun, MR and Curren did it quicker. Over half (40 of 74) career heat wins have come on reefbreaks. At Teahupo’o, only 2022 wildcard Nathan Hedge has ever beaten Robbo. He has the highest avg heat total in 2024 (13.92), and is the defending event champion in Tahiti. The last time he won WA (2022), he followed up post-cut with a win in G-Land. That said, no male surfer has ever gone back to back at the End of the Road.
Gabriel Medina
When you think about surfer picks for any event, you first imagine the wave at its archetypal best. And if that’s 8-10ft mind-melting Teahupo’o, you think Medina. Then, in a reluctant concession to real world pragmatism, you think maybe crossed up 4ft, bash the lip and punt down to dry reef Teahupo’o at some point during the rounds. Then, you still think Medina. Gabe’s been the biggest weapon in this part of the South Pacific since France ceased nuclear testing in 1996, with two wins, a final in each of his last four Teahupo’o CT events and six finals overall, with a whopping 77% heat-win rate.
Griffin Colapinto
If there was much previous conjecture on the topic, a heroic no-make foamball-straddling bomb in 2022 firmly established Griff’s Chopes chops. Still, his results here have been fairly shite, never making it past the third round, with three 9ths and a 25th. But that’s just Hinano half-empty talk. On the pos: Griff’s career-high heat total came here (18.10) in 2019 and he’s won more CT heats this season (16) than any man alive. His Opening Round clash with Italo and wildcard Mihimana Braye should be lively.
Kelly Slater
The 20th appearance at Teahupo;o for the GOAT — of which he’s won five — will also be his 295th CT event. The only difference is that this appearance now comes as a wildcard. While an obvious contender for a 6th Chopes trophy, his chances of winning it (or Fiji) seem less significant than merely regaling us with his otherworldly skills in world class waves. This season, Kelly has only won a single heat in five events. An OR heat with Jack and Ramzi looks like the other outstanding match up from the draw.
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Molly Picklum
Tahiti presents the ideal stage for Molly to pick up her Hawaiian season form, where she was the leading edge of the performance paradigm shift showcased on the North Shore. An on-dusk bomb snagged in practice ahead of the Chopes event furthers her case for being one of the best backhand tuberiders the Tour has seen.
Caity Simmers
Posted the highest wave (9.23) and heat (15.73) at Teahupoo in 2023. Having made five finals in 17 CT events, Caity’s win rate in finals is at a frightening 80%, her only runner up finish coming against Caroline Marks here in Tahiti last year. With a Pipe Pro, a Bell, and an Internet-melting ride from Maps To Nowhere already in the tote bag this season, 2024’s looking a lot like her year.
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Caroline Marks
Surfing in her 50th career CT event, Tahiti would be an ideal moment for the defending event and World Champ to crack her first final of the season. She’s one of three American women competing here in the Olympics. The USA has been dominant since Teahupo’o returned to CT, posting three out of four finalists. Marks’ post cut campaign was lethal last year, with three finals and two wins before ultimate triumph at Trestles.
Vahine Fierro
The most experienced Teahupo’o surfer in the draw, wildcard Vahine can use the Shiseido Pro as invaluable heat practice for the Olympics, where she’ll be a medal favourite for France. Despite the specialist nature of the wave, there’s never been a Tahitian CT winner, male or female. With two semis in her previous appearances, Fierro is as well poised for a historic home win as any surfer ever.
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Lurkers
Seth Moniz
Sometimes, you need a reason to make heats — other than scoring more points than the other guy. Seth’s slab skills will be his method, but maybe his reason is bringing more of charismatic cornerman Doug Silva to the public eye. If pro surfing is about writing yourself into the script, having Doug as your hype guy might be half the job already done.
Baz Mamiya
As far as the most critical backside tube piggery goes, Mamiya’s technique is up there with anyone’s. A smooth win at the Lexus Pipe Pro has been followed up largely by results dross, but Tahiti feels the perfect time to shine and get back in the Top 5 convo (currently 7th, less than a thousand points off 5th).
Mihimana Braye
Not the out-and-out tube specialist compared to some of the Tahitians, Mihimana’s overall competitive strength is his strength. Smarting after early losses on the CS in Oz, he’ll look to make amends at home in front of massive local support. Quarters here last year before an interference suggest unfinished biz, and if there is some suboptimal Chopes in the early rounds, he’ll belt it as hard as anybody.
LO’B
Part of the Teahupo’o CT story, part of its tradition, seems to include a happy-go-lucky middle order Aussie putting together a sequence of incredible tuberiding performances whilst chuckling something wildly understated like “It looks like Straddie” (Bots, after being shown a water shot of him inside a west bowl), as if to tone down the hyperbole for certain tastes. Getting the wave of his life in warm-ups surely can’t hurt, either.
Italo
If you told the 2019 world champ — or anyone else — he’d be the highest rated Brazilian after the cut, he’d have imagined himself well inside Top 5, rather than the relatively benthic depths of 16th. Quarters in 2018 and 2015 are the closest he’s come to a result in Taheets, not really a happy hunting ground for him down the years. If he did have a point to prove about not being able to defend his Olympic title — which you suspect he might — this would be the place to do it.
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Carissa Moore
Having never progressed past quarters at Teahupo’o (losing to Vahine in 2022-23) Riss’ main objective here is prepping for Paris 2024 rather than adding to her 28 CT event wins, although both would be nice. An as yet unseen practice bomb from a few days before the event suggests her time off tour stands her in fine fettle. Win your OR round and you’re already in the Quarts, six waves away from the trophy.
BLSJ
A Tahiti CT debut for Sakura, and a great chance to pick up after two lacklustre 9ths Down Under. Having made a big statement with her tube skills at Pipe and Backdoor, she hasn’t had much chance to showcase them on Tour since. Shouldn’t be a problem at Teahupo’o.
Brisa Hennessy
A finalist here in 2022, Brisa enjoys a unique opportunity to hone her bs tube werk with extended stays in Fiji, and is surfing with more authority than ever in 2024. Making semis in 4 out of 5 CT events this year is the kind of mad consistency any Tour surfer would kill for, a first win since Sunset 2022 would go a long way towards helping secure Final 5 berth.
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Mikey C’s Gamble Ramble
Event winner
$60 on Jack Robinson at +400 to win $240
$100 on Gabriel Medina at +375 to win $375
$20 on Barron Mamiya at +3300 to win $660
$20 on Seth Moniz at +4000 to win $800
$75 on Molly Picklum at +550 to win $413
$60 on Vahine Fierro at +700 to win $420
$65 on Carissa Moore at +600 to win $390
Make your picks here
The post Swell’s En Route, Slater’s Involved, Here Comes Teahupo’o… appeared first on Stab Mag.